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A simple fact exists in Canadian politics: if you want to form a majority government, you need to win seats in either Ontario or Quebec. It is very difficult to win the country without winning these provinces. Perhaps the biggest stumbling block to a Harper majority is the hesitancy of Quebec to embrace the Tories: there is certainly a Conservative foot-hold in Quebec, but not enough to create a feasible majority. The last Conservative government to form a majority in Canada was Mulroney's; it fell apart, in large measure, because the uneasy coalition between the West and Quebec fell apart. Certainly one of the biggest regional tensions in Canada exists between the West and Quebec, and while Mulroney was successful in patching the two together, it didn't last that long. Flash forward to today. As Chantal Hebert points out today in her column, Harper is risking his small foot-hold in Quebec to appease his Conservative base in the west. Jim Pretence, the federal Environment minister has lashed out against Quebec's strict environmental standards, suggesting that Quebec's method of dealing with climate change will lead us all to ruin. Fair's fair: slapping Quebec environmentalists around is a great way to win votes in Alberta, and to show you're conservative base you're not abandoning them. Fair's also fair: slapping Quebec environmentalists around is a great way to lose votes in Quebec. Slapping environmentalists around is also a great way to lose votes in Ontario and B.C. I can appreciate the conundrum that Harper is in. Cutting out your base means that while your supporters may not abandon you for another party, they may chose to stay home on election day or decide not to donate cash to you: look at what happened to Dion. At the same time, Harper will never get his majority if he continues to kick around vote-rich provinces. Harper needs to find a way to score a major political victory before the summer. On exactly how many fronts can he fight a political war: The Environment. The Afghan detainee question. The attacks on democracy. Tags: politics
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